2018 has been a bad year, even a very bad thing for the financial investors. The major exchanges of the world have plummeted, investment funds, live the most fateful since the outbreak of the crisis, the fixed income, commodities and criptomonedas closed with heavy losses in a year to forget. Only the dollar and barely gold, are maintained in positive, reinforcing its identity as a refuge assets.
The u.s. analysts are already talking about 2018 as the worst year since 2008, when he fell to Lehman Brothers. Its main stock index, the S&P has lost more than 12% and the Nasdaq technology, 10,2%. In Europe the situation is very similar: the Ibex 35 Spanish builds up as a fall of more than 15% and the German Dax left more than 17%, although they represent the locomotive of the european economy.
The trade war, the main focus of tension
The data are incontrovertible, but the unanimity disappears when identifying causes or culprits. And is that the situation is not very normal. In the markets, usually the money out of an asset is vested in another, and it is unlikely that all would go bad at the same time, as has happened in 2018.
Much less usual is that these widespread falls occur at the time that the economic indicators of most countries is still quite positive and the business benefits for action are at very high levels. Although it is also true that usually the bags work (or at least it did until a few years ago) as a leading indicator of the economy, while the macro data are behind.
The president of the united States, Donald J. Trump, has marked to market at the flick of a Tweet. (Michael Reynolds / EFE)
Maybe the culprit more clearly identified from this disaster is the trade war unleashed by Donald Trump that has punished markets of countries all over the planet, starting with Mexico, through Europe and ending in China. But there has been neither much less the only one.
Already in February of 2018 was the first alarm with a collapse of widespread markets, and an increase in the volatility index (VIX) which destroyed the investment strategies of many who took advantage of the low for this index and transmitted to the other assets, marking an annual maximum of slightly more than 41 points, now more moderate in 36.1.
low interest rates on the one hand and the intention of the major central banks to upload in the not too distant future has been one of the fears that have gripped the investment of the last few months of 2018. Very fed also by political tensions as strong as the Brexit, or the arrival in Italy of political forces is clearly in favor of breaking the single european currency.
In the emerging markets the situation was no better. Mexico sowed the panic first by the consequences of the trade war with the U.S. and then by the threat that hangs over the banking after the intention of his government to intervene in the fees charged by the sector. The political instability in Brazil and financial in Turkey and Argentina were also a strong burden for the benefits and the quote, especially the Spanish banking sector with heavy exposure to those countries.
The evil heights also has played against. In the summer, the main stock indices of Wall Street marked the highest levels in its history and underpinned an unprecedented upward cycle of more than nine years. The doubts about whether they could follow up or were not behind many of the decisions of sale.
Too many negatives to offset the positives that have also been given and in which he has tried to put the focus of the study entitled ‘Navigating the change cycle’ elaborated by Santander Wealth Magament, ”a scenario of macroeconomic growth, absence of inflationary pressure and positive expectations of growth”.
“These fundamental variables have been taken into 2018 a behavior are favorable, and if we focus on the variables of growth, both the picture macro (+3.8% in GDP) and the microeconomic (+15,4% benefits companies) have responded to the expectations of investors at the global level. The behavior of the market has not been in tune with these fundamental growth, and investors of fixed income (fall of 3.4% in the prices of debt) as the income variable (-3,2% yield of the world stock markets) have experienced losses” underscore these experts.
central banks withdrawing cash
All this without forgetting a key point. One of the consequences of the current policies of the central banks is that they are withdrawing part of the liquidity injected in the recent years and this means that now to invest in an asset must be divested in another.
Finally, though no less important, after the fall of the bags, there is an ethereal fear of the uncertainty of many of the businesses of the listed companies which hampers the confidence of investors. One of the main examples of this sense is the evolution of Inditex.
The collapse of the quote of the Day has been the most bulky in the Spanish stock market during 2018. (Grocery DAY)
The Spanish company of fashion has been seen as the investors went in shock when other companies in its competition such as H&M were bad numbers for the e-commerce revolution.
“change Is in the wind model in many sectors derived from the scan that no one knows where he’s going to go, but that everyone has insurance will as much in distribution as in the automotive industry or even in agriculture, and that uncertainty has also contributed very negative and will continue to do so”, says Javier Dominguez, a Partner at Auriga Global Investor.
The prick of the criptomonedas
some of that spread also has had a chain of supermarkets Day, although in this case they have been their internal problems which have led to the left, 88% of its value in the year, becoming the company’s most bearish of Ibex 35 and, therefore, be expelled from the selective Spanish.
2018 has also been a landmark year for the market of the criptomonedas. The year of the bursting of a bubble that, fortunately for all, swelled less than others. The bitcoin, the criptomoneda more known, has lost in the last twelve months, about 83 per cent of its value. Some lumpy losses that on this occasion you have not surprised anyone. Analysts, experts and even financial regulators such as the SEC in the US or the CNMV in Spain had months warning of the danger of investing in these complicated assets. It seems that this time, the previous bubble was too close as to have lost all memory.